Brand Yourself as a Mathematician or Become Obsolete
September 30, 2008 at 11:58 pm | In Book Reviews, Brand Yourself As, Career Development, Interview, People, Personal Branding | 1 CommentToday, I spoke with Ian Ayres, who is an author and law professor at Yale. He shares insights as to why you really need to learn about statistics and how companies are using these so-called “Supercrunchers” to conduct business.
Why do we need to understand numbers to succeed and survive in our world? Should every college student have to take a statistics class before they graduate?
Every college student should definitely take statistics
before graduation. I’d even think we should mandate it in high school. Only about 2% of college students use calculus in their subsequent lives. But 100% of college graduates can use statistics to understand the meaning of political polls or of medical studies or to understand advice about how to invest for retirement.
There’s some progress here. I’m heartened to see that many Algebra and Pre-Algebra text books are sneaking in statistics (often by brute force). But it is an afterthought and not clear that teachers actually teach these sections or those students come away knowing how to compute for example a test of statistical significance in the difference of two means.
Which companies are looking at databases to find unseen connections to predict human behavior? Do you know any specific people who are “stand-out” number crunchers?
Virtually every Fortune 500 company now is doing some kind of data mining. The difference is in the quality of the number crunching that is being done. The book “Competing on Analytics” does a good job of giving an idea of some of the best companies (including Harahs for example). A lot of companies are stuck at just doing descriptive statistics. They are only pulling cross tabs and using dashboards. The next level up is doing more sophisticated scoring. The next phase is to improve quality of scoring prediction and pay more attention to the precision of the predictions. One of the coolest things about regressions is that the same technique that makes a prediction, simultaneously tells you the precision of that prediction.
What is a “super cruncher” and how do we become one? How does that differ from an “intuitivist”? 
Super crunchers are using traditional tools of regression and randomization but they are applying them to mammoth datasets and they are having impacts on a scale that we’ve never seen before. So size, speed and scale are the hallmarks of super crunching. Super crunchers still use their intuitions, but they are willing to put their intuitions to the test. To become a super cruncher, you need to be trained in the techniques of randomization and regression. If your organization is not using BOTH of these techniques, you’re presumptively screwing up.
Can you explain how the “super cruncher” phenomenon will impact the workplace, recruitment and how we manage our personal brands?
Super Crunching tends to take discretion away from line employees. The front-line tasks tend to become more scripted.
Ian, please list the top 5 skills that you would recommend we all work on. 
You need to learn how to:
- 1) generate testable hypotheses
- 2) run randomized tests
- 3) run regressions
- 4) analyze the results of the regressions and randomized trials
- 5) use the results to generate more testable hypotheses
I’d recommend starting with running randomized tests. The new chapter that’s been added to the paperback editions, talks about free software that Microsoft and Google are giving away to help you start regressing and randomizing. It’s really easy and free to run randomized tests on your own websites. Finally, checkout my prediction tools if you want to start generating some predictions about things in your own life.
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Ian Ayres is a lawyer and an economist. He is the William K. Townsend Professor at Yale Law School and a Professor at Yale’s School of Management.Professor Ayres is a regular commentator on public radio’s Marketplace and a columnist for Forbes magazine. His research has been featured on PrimeTime Live, Oprah and Good Morning America and in Time and Vogue magazines. Professor Ayres has published 9 books and over 100 articles on a wide range of topics. In 2007, he published Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-By-Numbers is the New Way to be Smart.
Become a Top Brand Using a Single Roll of Toilet Paper
September 30, 2008 at 11:23 am | In Book Reviews, Career Development, People, Personal Branding, Success Strategies | 2 Comments
I asked Mike Michalowicz to give you some personal branding tips. Mike has started companies from scratch, is a frequent guest on The Big Idea with Donnie Deutsch and is an author of a new book called The Toilet Paper Entrepreneur. Some may believe this title to be a bit too “over the top,” yet it is the perfect message for any entrepreneur, “you can start a company and succeed with few resources.” Mike loves to give people a chance, which is why he started a company called Obsidian Launch to help fund companies built by young entrepreneurs. I hate seeing people give up on their dreams because of financial reasons. Everything I’ve built is with my bare hands, including this blog, the magazine and my book. If you believe in yourself, are determined and persistent, you can accomplish anything.
If you have time, listen to Mike’s live radio show, which was live last night.
1) Be true to yourself
Stop listening to people who are trying to convince you to become something you aren’t. You need to take command of your life and do what you love. When you are passionate about what you do, you WILL make money from it because you will have the desire to make it happen. If you do what you hate, then it will not only affect your professional career but damper your social life.
2) Be different
So many people do the same things over and over again. Would you rather be just another number or someone people will talk about, even when you aren’t there. To be different is to be remembered and never forgotten. Sure you can take my advice or Mike’s, but you’ll have to make it your own in order to be unique. Copycats will always fail in a world full of clutter, where people have a lack of time and attention span.
3) You have to listen intensely to others
People can help you out by giving you precious feedback, which can be used to build the brand called YOU. If you build a product that no one wants, by neglecting your customers opinion, then it won’t sell and you’ll be out of business.
4) You have to amplify yourself
There is only one of you! You can use social networks, such as Digg, Facebook and more to get your voice out there. These networks work even while you are asleep. By using social media tools, you can spread your personal brand across the web, creating a lasting presence-a platform-for which you can build upon.
Become the Chief People Officer for the Brand Called You
September 29, 2008 at 10:57 pm | In Book Reviews, People, Personal Branding, Recruitment, Success Strategies | 2 CommentsToday, I spoke with Geoff Smart and Randy Street, who are two of the brightest people I’ve encountered when it comes to recruiting the best talent. They just finished their first book called Who: A Method For Hiring. We discuss why talent is so important to building a
winning team, go over some incredible research they’ve uncovered and talk about why social networks are so significant now for sourcing candidates. When it comes to personal branding, you are the company, which means you have to become the Chief People Officer and recruit top people to fill your world with.
Is talent the name of the game? How important is hiring the right people?
Talent is definitely the name of the game. I worked in strategy consulting for five years and thought that it was the answer to everything. I just couldn’t understand why half of my clients never seemed to execute the strategies we helped them define. So I got out of the consulting world and tried a start-up. The CEO asked me to run sales and marketing, and I quickly found my sales strategies were worthless without good execution. But what confused me was why half of my sales folks did great, while others languished. That’s when the light went on. It’s all about the people.
Get the right people and great things happen. Get the wrong people and management becomes one headache after another.
Our philosophy is you should expect “A” performance out of everybody. If you pay $30K, you should expect an A performance out of the pool of people willing to work for $30K, and so on.
Recruiting has certainly changed in the past few years. It is said that 1 and 4 hiring managers use social networks to screen candidates and 10% of admission officers do the same with perspective students. What is your opinion on using social networks to recruit and conduct background checks on candidates?
From our unprecedented field research with over 20 billionaires and 60 other CEOs and investors, we learned that social networks are not only desirable, they are in fact the #1 best way to source talented people. 77% of those surveyed for our book indicated that personal and professional networks were the best way they hired their best people (followed by recruiters and job boards and ads, etc.).
We’ve also found a lot of people use on-line social networking sites to screen candidates – e.g. Facebook and My Space. Companies have to be careful, though. Legally, they can only disqualify somebody if they are incapable of doing the job at hand. That’s one advantage of a tool we introduce called the Scorecard. The Scorecard lays out what “A” performance looks like before you even talk to people. If a hiring manager sees things on social sites that suggest the candidate is not qualified for the Scorecard, then the manager is on firm ground to screen the candidate out.
What is your famous 4-step recruiting method that you’ve used with your clients?
It is called the ghSMART A Method for Hiring. The 4 steps are the necessary things you have to do to pick the right “who.”
- Scorecard—a blueprint of what OUTCOMES you want a person to deliver in a role, and the way you want those outcomes to be achieved.
- Source—again, social networks being the #1 way to find the best people for your company. (with referrals being the key sourcing mechanism)
- Select—there are 4 interviews you need to master to have a 90%+ hiring success rate. (The Topgrading Interview is the main event among the four interviews. It is a chronological, structured walk through of a person’s career. From it, a person’s success patterns clearly emerge.)
- Sell—how to get the right candidate to sign on the bottom line? Remember to emphasize the 5Fs of Selling: Fit, Family, Fortune, Freedom, and Fun.
What are hiring mistakes you’ve seen in the past? What do recruiters do right and wrong?
Hiring mistakes come when managers don’t know what the outcomes are they are expecting, when they confuse volume of candidates with the quality of fit, when informal “how about them Cubs” interviews are used rather than fact-based intensive interviews, and when managers forget to sell the candidates once an offer is made. Recruiters are typically good at generating a flow of candidates but fail to collect enough balanced data—positives and negatives from interviews and references.
Managers also rush the process. They are so mired in the day-to-day details of their job that they fail to realize that building their team IS their job. The best sports coaches spend a huge amount of time thinking about who to put on their teams and in what positions. They also spend a lot of time developing the talents of those team members through specific practice and drills. Managers fail to invest the time and end up making hiring mistakes 50% of the time.
Care to share some results from your 300 CEO study?
Sure. We found one surprising result. Common knowledge is that the warm and cuddly type of CEO performs the best—you know, the one who is very open to feedback, infinitely participative in decision making, and gets along very well with others. Well the facts are different. We conducted the most in-depth study ever done that looked at CEO traits and financial performance, on 313 CEOs over a 5-year period. We found out that these warm and cuddly CEOs, whom we called “Lambs” were financially successful about half as often as their more aggressive and focused counterparts, whom we named the “Cheetahs.” So everybody who is a CEO, or who wants to become one, should reevaluate what the ideal modern form of CEO really is. In summary, it is better to get stuff done than it is to appease everybody around you.
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Geoff Smart is the co-author of Who: A Method For Hiring. He is the chairman and CEO of ghSMART, the management assessment firm for CEOs and investors, which he founded in 1995. ghSMART’s clients include leading private equity investors, Fortune 500 CEOs, and billionaire entrepreneurs. The firm’s impact on helping clients make better “who” decisions has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, Fortune, and a Harvard Business School case study.
Randy Street is the co-author of Who: A Method For Hiring. He is the president of ghSMART Executive Learning, the business unit he founded that helps managers learn key skills to achieve career and financial success through research, publications, workshops, and associated products. Randy is a popular speaker with a dynamic and energetic style that routinely generates the highest audience satisfaction scores possible. He has been featured in the Wall Street Journal.
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